January 2012 "People that are really very weird can get into sensitive positions and have a tremendous impact on history." -- Dan Quayle   RESERVED FOR POSTERITY ARE the economic outlooks (True Facts) essays (Stating the Obvious), and chronicles of the development of our quant portfolios (Work in Progress). No changes have been made to the original text except to update links. Pretty brave, huh? So how'd we do? Let us know. True Facts Archives January 2012 -- The current page: The Election Year Economy November 2011 -- Snatched from the Headlines September 2011 -- Real Investment July 2011 -- The Soft Patchers vs. The Double-Dippers May2011 -- The Unknown and the Obvious March 2011 -- International Issues January 2011 -- What About the Debt? November 2010 -- Short-Term Solution, Long-Term Problem September 2010 -- Stimulus Hangover July 2010 -- What Won't Heal the Economy May 2010 -- Earnings Power March 2010 -- Focus on Washington January 2010 -- Taking Leave November 2009 -- Propped-Up Progress September 2009 -- The Past as Prelude July 2009 -- Right on Target May 2009 -- Cautious Optimism March 2009 -- Debt and Reflation January 2009 -- Uncharted Territory November 2008 -- Not So Different September 2008 -- It Really Does Matter July 2008 -- Broken Spiral May 2008 -- Turning Point? March 2008 -- Act Accordingly January 2008 -- You Just Knew November 2007 -- Something's Got to Give September 2007 -- The Liquid Prescription July 2007 -- Seeking Direction May 2007 -- Against the Odds March 2007 -- Soft Landing January 2007 -- Risk and Reward November 2006 -- Running on Empty September 2006 -- History Lesson July 2006 -- Trendless Summer May 2006 -- Yield to Bonds March 2006 -- News, Noise, and Knowledge January 2006 -- Positive Reality, Negative Perception November 2005 -- After the Storms September 2005 -- Homesickness July 2005 -- Needless Worries May 2005 -- The Weight of the World March 2005 -- Chugging Along January 2005 -- This Year's Worry November 2004 -- The Problem of Induction September 2004 -- Not Different, Just More Noticeable July 2004 -- There's No Debate May 2004 -- The Long and Short of It March 2004 -- Monkey Wrenches January 2004 -- The Perfect Break-Up November 2003 -- Historical Recycling September 2003 -- Rate Wait July 2003 -- Put Up or Shut Up May 2003 -- Meanwhile, Back in the U.S. March 2003 -- Mostly Cloudy January 2003 -- All Else Being Equal November 2002 -- The Chicken or the Egg September 2002 -- Just Relax July 2002 -- Supply and Demand May 2002 -- Who Do You Believe: Economists or CEOs? March 2002 -- From Visibility to Credibility January 2002 -- We've Got the 'P', Now Where's the 'E'? November 2001 -- The Real New Economy September 2001 -- Capital Ideas July 2001 -- A Matter of Focus May 2001 -- Four Stupid Questions March 2001 -- Oops, They Did It Again January 2001 -- Dear Al November 2000 -- The Soap Market September 2000 -- Valuation vs. Earnings July 2000 -- Be Careful What You Wish For May 2000 -- It's Different This Time March 2000 -- The Idiot Wind January 2000 -- What If? November 1999 -- Cause and Effect September 1999 -- Haunted by the Past July 1999 -- Inflation Wars I: The Phantom Menace May 1999 -- Looking for Trouble March 1999 -- Forget Goldilocks, Watch Out for the March Hare January 1999 -- Liquidity Diet November 1998 -- The Fed vs. the Bear September 1998 -- Ignoring the Facts July 1998 -- Dásià vu May 1998 -- Alfred E. Newman Economics March 1998 -- Relief But Not Comfort January 1998 -- Will the Wounded Asian Tiger Turn U.S. Stocks into Dogs? Stating the Obvious Archives January 2012 -- The current page: The Search for Forward-Looking Factors November 2011 -- The Problem with Commodity Diversification September 2011 -- The Beloved Misallocation July 2011 -- The Real Concept of Risk May 2011 -- Not All Benchmarks are the Same March 2011 -- The Case for Dividends January 2011 -- Beyond Asset Allocation November 2010 -- Asset Class Mythology September 2010 -- Diversification's Holy Grail July 2010 -- S'Wonderful, S'Marvelous, SMID May 2010 -- Good Statistics, Bad Results March 2010 -- When 2x ≠ 2x January 2010 -- Not Created Equal November 2009 -- Poster Child September 2009 -- Who are You Going to Believe? July 2009 -- Cats and Dogs May 2009 -- Ahead of the Market? March 2009 -- Lessons from the Rout January 2009 -- We're All Keynesians Now ... Again November 2008 -- The Mattress Fund September 2008 -- Shorting Won't Help July 2008 -- Relative to What? May 2008 -- Lose the Lost Decade March 2008 -- Alpha Seekers and Beta Managers January 2008 -- No Win Situation November 2007 -- Longer Periods vs. Recent Results September 2007 -- More Difficult Than You Think July 2007 -- You Can Beat the Index May 2007 -- Extreme Makeover March 2007 -- The Value Conundrum January 2007 -- True, False, or Maybe? November 2006 -- Closet Measurements September 2006 -- Interested in Alternative Investments? July 2006 -- Are You Really Afraid of Beating the Market? May 2006 -- The Case for Cash March 2006 -- The Worst of Both Worlds/Working Knowledge January 2006 -- You Can't Beat the Wrong Benchmark November 2005 -- Mutually Taxing September 2005 -- Efficient Markets, Inefficient Investors July 2005 -- What Should a Professional Money Manager Do for You? May 2005 -- Beta Isn't Alpha March 2005 -- The Beloved Ponzi Scheme January 2005 -- Analysts or Reporters? November 2004 -- In the Eye of the Beholder September 2004 -- From the Bottom Up July 2004 -- No Time Like the Present May 2004 -- Job Hunt March 2004 -- What Was the Best Asset Allocation? January 2004 -- Sue the Patents Off 'Em! November 2003 -- Capital vs. Labor September 2003 -- Numbers and Percents July 2003 -- The Third Factor May 2003 -- Risky Business March 2003 -- The Third Year/Their Loss is Your Gain January 2003 -- Active Management's Dirty Little Secret/Someone's Still Listening November 2002 -- The Premature Death of Buy and Hold September 2002 -- Myths and Legends of the P/E Ratio July 2002 -- Shelter from the Storm May 2002 -- Technical Tweak March 2002 -- The Right to Choose/ENE and Reg. FD January 2002 -- The Best Asset Allocation November 2001 -- Not Your Grandmother's Utilities September 2001 -- Winning the War After Losing Every Battle July 2001 -- Coming to Terms/Holding the Invisible Hand May 2001 -- Let's Put the Phillips Curve to Rest/Taxing Issues March 2001 -- Small Differences/Mutual Cash January 2001 -- Some Estimates Are Better Than Others/PEG Nailed November 2000 -- Risk Without Debt?/Why Regulation FD is a BFD September 2000 -- Unmanaged Index?/A House (and Senate) Divided July 2000 -- Bad Relations May 2000 -- The Name Doesn't Tell It All March 2000 -- Where are the Accountants?/Stop Loss or Stop Gain? January 2000 -- Like Tech? Buy Energy November 1999 -- Figuring Insiders Out/Value Traps September 1999 -- Snapshot Investing/The Investing Almanac July 1999 -- Size Really Does Matter/Our Technical Index May 1999 -- Do You Really Need Government Bonds? March 1999 -- A Losing Bet/Gralue January 1999 -- Lunacy.com/Investing Alchemy November 1998 -- Creative Accounting/How Can I Tell When the Bear is Gone? September 1998 -- The ABCs of IPOs/Your Government at Work July 1998 -- An Exercise in Splitting Shares/All Thumbs May 1998 -- When the Supply of Stock is in Demand/Investing Your Roth IRA March 1998 -- Home or Abroad?/Fundamental Technical Analysis January 1998 -- Investors' New Year's Resolutions/One Investment You Really Don't Need November 1997 -- How Do I Get Started/Should I Raise Cash? Work in Progress Archives January 2012 -- The current page: Lessons from Portfolio 2 November 2011 -- Good May Not Be Enough September 2011 -- Theory vs. Reality July 2011 -- Quant at a Cost May 2011 -- Return Is Not A Bad Word March 2011 -- Thinking Ahead January 2011 -- Incrementally Better November 2010 -- Clean Sweep -- Almost September 2010 -- What's So Wrong with Buy-and-Hold? July 2010 -- The Value of Market Timing May 2010 -- Turnover Unleashed March 2010 -- Preliminary Performance January 2010 -- Old and New November 2009 -- Sooner is Better than Later September 2009 -- Mid Cap Surprise July 2009 -- Small Ball May 2009 -- Feels Like a Long Time March 2009 -- Weight Control January 2009 -- Together We Fall November 2008 -- Cyclicality September 2008 -- Just Right July 2008 -- Lessons from the Regressions May 2008 -- Your Own Mutual Fund March 2008 -- Follow the Numbers January 2008 -- A Long Strange Trip November 2007 -- All in the Results September 2007 -- Off Balance July 2007 -- The Search for Persistence May 2007 -- You Be the Judge March 2007 -- Stock Charts January 2007 -- Weight Watching November 2006 -- Buy and Hold September 2006 -- Downside Up July 2006 -- Status Quo May 2006 -- Capsized March 2006 -- Past as Prologue January 2006 -- Fundamental Change November 2005 -- Too Long, Too Short, or Just Right? September 2005 -- Wrong Place, Wrong Time July 2005 -- All in the Timing May 2005 -- Comings and Goings March 2005 -- Appearances vs. Reality January 2005 -- A Portfolio of Outliers November 2004 -- Stuck Together September 2004 -- History Isn't Enough July 2004 -- Ready for the Pros May 2004 -- Blend and Change March 2004 -- The Right Balance January 2004 -- Correlation and Deviation November 2003 -- Mid Cap Preference September 2003 -- Taming Turnover July 2003 -- Time for a Change May 2003 -- A Tip of the Cap March 2003 -- Long in the Tooth January 2003 -- More Than Just Return November 2002 -- Realistic Expectations September 2002 -- Round Three July 2002 -- Think Inside the Box May 2002 -- Why Wait? March 2002 -- Return Engagement January 2002 -- Apples to Apples November 2001 -- Down in the Data Mine September 2001 -- Just Momentum? July 2001 -- Out With the Old, In With the New May 2001 -- Tracking Errors March 2001 -- What We Didn't Do January 2001 -- Staying Power November 2000 -- But Does It Make Sense? September 2000 -- The Starting Point E-mail your comments. Search this site! Just enter you key word or words:   Get current quotes or follow your own custom portfolio, courtesy of E-Line Financials:   Search:TickerName Company DataQuickQuote     Homepage Return to Top